FC OSS vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC OSS and De Graafschap meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
FC OSS (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 5W 0D 5L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. FC OSS's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of De Graafschap's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC OSS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, De Graafschap in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
De Graafschap hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 2–3 with De Graafschap winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
FC OSS — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 64% and De Graafschap 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC OSS 62% | De Graafschap 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.56 xG and De Graafschap 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.957 / defence 1.016 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 FC OSS games / 42 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 39%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
De Graafschap lead the H2H ledger, but FC OSS carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 37% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG FC OSS 1.56 / De Graafschap 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.957 / def 1.016 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.61
De Graafschap xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC OSS vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 30 April 2027 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
Where is FC OSS vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs De Graafschap part of?
FC OSS vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 37% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC OSS and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 7W.
What form are FC OSS and De Graafschap in?
FC OSS (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.93x) against FC OSS's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
37%
2.69
24%
4.25
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.17
1.61
De Graafschap xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
7%
13.48
8%
12.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC OSS and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.61 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC OSS come into this having played 42 games, going 12W 11D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.48 PPG from 42 outings (17W 11D 14L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for FC OSS against 1.48 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC OSS's home form reads 7W 3D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.88 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 76%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 14L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.14 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC OSS
2
Draws
7
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 1, De Graafschap have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for FC OSS, 76% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC OSS and 67% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC OSS's games and 76% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC OSS's matches and 67% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC OSS and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.