FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours De Graafschap (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC OSS face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC OSS and De Graafschap meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 December 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
FC OSS (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 2W 3D 5L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
De Graafschap arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC OSS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
De Graafschap hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
FC OSS — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 48% versus De Graafschap 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 45% | De Graafschap 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.28 xG and De Graafschap 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.786 / defence 1.159 | De Graafschap attack 1.240 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.509. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 FC OSS games / 58 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 22% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 58%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 4.55 | Draw 5.00 | De Graafschap 1.72. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 60% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 22% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG FC OSS 1.28 / De Graafschap 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.786 / def 1.159 | De Graafschap attack 1.240 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.738 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
2.17
De Graafschap xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC OSS vs De Graafschap kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
FC OSS 2 - 3 De Graafschap.
Where is FC OSS vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs De Graafschap part of?
FC OSS vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 22% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 58% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC OSS and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
Record (9 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 6W.
What form are FC OSS and De Graafschap in?
FC OSS (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.24x) against FC OSS's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 2.17.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
22%
4.55
20%
4.88
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.45
2.17
De Graafschap xG
4.55
22%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
11%
8.74
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
3%
39.79
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are FC OSS and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC OSS and 2.17 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC OSS come into this having played 58 games, going 12W 22D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.67 PPG from 58 outings (28W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC OSS's home form reads 10W 7D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.84 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 66%.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 22D 24L in their last 58 games (1.00 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 28W 13D 17L in their last 58 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.28 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC OSS
2
Draws
7
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 1, De Graafschap have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 52%, De Graafschap 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (FC OSS) and 62% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 31% of games; De Graafschap in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC OSS's games and 69% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of FC OSS's matches and 62% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC OSS and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out FC OSS 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC OSS 2-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.28 xG and De Graafschap 2.17 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 2.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.79 / defence 1.16 against De Graafschap attack 1.24 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 22% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 58%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 45%, De Graafschap 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.