FC Eindhoven 0-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Willem II at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 3W 2D 5L at Jan Louwers Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jan Louwers Stadion this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, FC Eindhoven have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Willem II 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Willem II in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 44% versus Willem II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 61% | Willem II 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.02 xG and Willem II 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.061 / defence 1.126 | Willem II attack 0.902 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.524. Data: 59 FC Eindhoven games / 21 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 22% | Willem II 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Willem II 3.45. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 50% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 22% | Willem II 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.02 / Willem II 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.061 / def 1.126 | Willem II attack 0.902 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.524 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Willem II xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Willem II kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Willem II kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 2 Willem II.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Willem II part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 49% chance of winning, Willem II a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Willem II?
Record (5 meetings): FC Eindhoven 2W | Draws 1 | Willem II 2W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Willem II in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
49%
2.06
22%
4.55
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.57
1.55
Willem II xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
13%
7.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
4%
25.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.55 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 22W 12D 25L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 15W 15D 29L from 59 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.32 PPG, Willem II on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (9W 7D 14L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 7W 9D 14L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.15 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Willem II in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 22W 12D 25L in their last 59 games (1.32 PPG), while Willem II have gone 15W 15D 29L in their last 59 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Willem II away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.13 PPG; Willem II away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Willem II in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Eindhoven 0-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 47%, Willem II 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Eindhoven) and 50% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of FC Eindhoven's games and 63% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 50% of Willem II's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Willem II tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Willem II in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat FC Eindhoven 0-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.02 xG and Willem II 1.55 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.06 / defence 1.13 against Willem II attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 22% | Willem II 29%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 61%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Willem II's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.32 PPG, Willem II 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.