FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 16 as FC Eindhoven welcome Waalwijk to Jan Louwers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 4W 2D 4L at Jan Louwers Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Waalwijk's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of FC Eindhoven's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Eindhoven, 1 for Waalwijk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Waalwijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Eindhoven 51% and Waalwijk 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 65% | Waalwijk 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.54 xG and Waalwijk 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.907 / defence 1.076 | Waalwijk attack 0.795 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 49 FC Eindhoven games / 49 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 44% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Waalwijk 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waalwijk (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 70% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 44% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.54 / Waalwijk 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.907 / def 1.076 | Waalwijk attack 0.795 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Waalwijk xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 44% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 0.91x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
44%
2.28
25%
3.99
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.79
1.25
Waalwijk xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
7%
15.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.25 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 17W 7D 25L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 17W 18D 14L from 49 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.18 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 1.42 PPG from 24 outings (10W 4D 10L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 7W 10D 7L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.80 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 78%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 7D 25L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 17W 18D 14L in their last 49 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Waalwijk away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.42 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Eindhoven
0
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 1, Waalwijk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Waalwijk 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 58%, Waalwijk 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC Eindhoven and 58% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FC Eindhoven's games and 71% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 58% of Waalwijk's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.