FC Eindhoven 1-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jan Louwers Stadion plays host to FC Eindhoven versus MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 29 January 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Eindhoven have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in FC Eindhoven's favour (1.80 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FC Eindhoven 0W, MVV 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with MVV winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 44% versus MVV 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 44% | MVV 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.04 xG and MVV 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.263 / defence 0.913 | MVV attack 0.603 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.440. FC Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 FC Eindhoven games / 23 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 66% | Draw 20% | MVV 14%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | MVV 7.14. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Eindhoven 60% | MVV 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 66% | Draw 20% | MVV 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.04 / MVV 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.263 / def 0.913 | MVV attack 0.603 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.79
MVV xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs MVV kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs MVV kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs MVV?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 0 MVV.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs MVV part of?
FC Eindhoven vs MVV is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 66% chance of winning, MVV a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Eindhoven and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and MVV?
Record (1 meetings): FC Eindhoven 0W | Draws 0 | MVV 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and MVV in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. MVV (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (1.26) and MVV's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.60x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
66%
1.50
20%
5.00
14%
7.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.83
0.79
MVV xG
1.50
66%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
7.40
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
2%
57.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 0.79 for MVV, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 23 games, going 11W 5D 7L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, MVV sit at 1.00 PPG from 23 outings (7W 2D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of MVV — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 7W 3D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — FC Eindhoven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, MVV have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (3W 0D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.00 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and MVV in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 11W 5D 7L in their last 23 games (1.65 PPG), while MVV have gone 7W 2D 14L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or MVV away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.18 PPG; MVV away: 0.82 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or MVV been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, MVV in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Eindhoven won 5-0 on 9 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
5
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 4, MVV have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when FC Eindhoven 5-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and MVV?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 64%, MVV 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Eindhoven) and 54% (MVV).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; MVV in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 36% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 54% of MVV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and MVV tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, MVV in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out MVV 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat MVV 1-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.04 xG and MVV 0.79 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Eindhoven fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.26 / defence 0.91 against MVV attack 0.60 / defence 1.41, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 66% | Draw 20% | MVV 14%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 44%, MVV 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
MVV's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.