FC Eindhoven 1-3 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven and Heracles meet at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 10:15 UTC.
Form
FC Eindhoven (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Heracles's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.00 for Heracles. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Eindhoven lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Heracles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 54% versus Heracles 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Eindhoven 70% | Heracles 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.05 xG and Heracles 2.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.025 / defence 1.088 | Heracles attack 1.521 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.732. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.521 — the away xG of 2.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 FC Eindhoven games / 3 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 27% | Draw 17% | Heracles 55%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 3.70 | Draw 5.88 | Heracles 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 82% | Total xG 4.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 82% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 2.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 87% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 82% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | Heracles 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 10:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 27% | Draw 17% | Heracles 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 82% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.05 / Heracles 2.87 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.025 / def 1.088 | Heracles attack 1.521 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.732 • Poisson stance: Heracles (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
2.87
Heracles xG
82%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Heracles kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Heracles kicked off at 10:15 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Heracles?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 3 Heracles.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Heracles part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 27% chance of winning, Heracles a 55% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 82% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Heracles?
Record (2 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Heracles in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Heracles (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (1.52x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 2.87.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-2, at 6.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (6.2%), 2-3 (6.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 19% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
27%
3.66
17%
5.73
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
6.2%
Away win
2 – 3
6.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
4.92
2.87
Heracles xG
3.66
27%
Home win
5.73
17%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
72%
Over 3.5
1.39
28%
Under 3.5
3.57
55%
Over 4.5
1.82
45%
Under 4.5
2.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
82%
BTTS Yes
1.22
18%
BTTS No
5.62
Clean Sheet
6%
17.57
13%
7.80
Win to Nil
2%
64.28
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.3%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 2.87 for Heracles, a combined total of 4.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 4D 21L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 0.76 PPG from 37 outings (8W 4D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 0.76 for Heracles. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 7W 3D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.56 points per game from 18 outings (3W 1D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.30 scored and 2.46 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Heracles in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 12W 4D 21L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Heracles have gone 8W 4D 25L in their last 37 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Heracles away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.33 PPG; Heracles away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heracles won 3-0 on 21 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Heracles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
FC Eindhoven
0
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Heracles?
From 3 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 1, Heracles have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 56%, Heracles 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for FC Eindhoven and 78% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Eindhoven's games and 56% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 78% of Heracles's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Heracles tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Heracles in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat FC Eindhoven 1-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.05 xG and Heracles 2.87 xG, a combined 4.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against Heracles attack 1.52 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 27% | Draw 17% | Heracles 55%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 87%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 72% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 82% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 70%, Heracles 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.08 PPG, Heracles 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.