FC Eindhoven 5-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Dordrecht at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 1L across 6 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (2.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, FC Eindhoven have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 86% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Eindhoven 50% and Dordrecht 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 57% | Dordrecht 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.95 xG and Dordrecht 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.020 / defence 1.128 | Dordrecht attack 0.762 / defence 1.526. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.548. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.526 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 FC Eindhoven games / 14 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 52% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Dordrecht 3.85. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 67% | Dordrecht 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 52% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.95 / Dordrecht 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.020 / def 1.128 | Dordrecht attack 0.762 / def 1.526 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Dordrecht xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
FC Eindhoven 5 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 52% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 1.02x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.55
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.29
1.33
Dordrecht xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
4%
27.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.33 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 2D 5L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 0.71 PPG from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — FC Eindhoven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.17 points per game from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dordrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.21 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 71%.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 7W 2D 5L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Dordrecht away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.17 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.17 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2021, when FC Eindhoven won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
6
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, Dordrecht have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Dordrecht 3-4 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Eindhoven at 67%, Dordrecht at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Eindhoven and 100% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Eindhoven's games and 83% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 100% of Dordrecht's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Eindhoven run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Dordrecht 5-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.95 xG and Dordrecht 1.33 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.02 / defence 1.13 against Dordrecht attack 0.76 / defence 1.53, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 52% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 26%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 57%, Dordrecht 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Dordrecht's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.