Excelsior 2-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and Jong Utrecht meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Excelsior's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Excelsior have posted 3W 2D 2L at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion — 1.57 PPG. They are averaging 2.43 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Utrecht have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Excelsior. A 1.10 PPG lead over Jong Utrecht (1.90 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 62% versus Jong Utrecht 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 75% | Jong Utrecht 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.93 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.347 / defence 1.320 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.852 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.548. Excelsior carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Excelsior games / 16 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 43% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 35%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Jong Utrecht 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 57% | Jong Utrecht 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 43% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Excelsior 1.93 / Jong Utrecht 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.347 / def 1.320 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.852 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Jong Utrecht xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht?
Excelsior 2 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 43% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Excelsior and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Jong Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and Jong Utrecht in?
Excelsior (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 1.35x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.85x) against Excelsior's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
43%
2.33
22%
4.63
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.67
1.74
Jong Utrecht xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
8%
13.28
5%
19.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.74 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Excelsior's recent record stands at 10W 2D 4L from 16 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 7L across 16 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 2W 3D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 2.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 10W 2D 4L in their last 16 games (2.00 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Excelsior's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.57 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 3-0 on 28 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Excelsior
1
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Jong Utrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Excelsior 3-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Jong Utrecht?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 57%, Jong Utrecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Excelsior and 71% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Excelsior's games and 71% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Excelsior's matches and 71% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Excelsior and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out Jong Utrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Jong Utrecht 2-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.93 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.74 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.35 / defence 1.32 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 43% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 35%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 75%, Jong Utrecht 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.