Emmen 1-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Utrecht make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Monday 2 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Emmen have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Jong Utrecht (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Emmen against 1.00 for Jong Utrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Emmen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong Utrecht in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Emmen, who have won 7 of the last 7 meetings against Jong Utrecht — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Emmen winning.
The historical record gives Emmen a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 54% versus Jong Utrecht 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 62% | Jong Utrecht 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.64 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.972 / defence 1.145 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.970 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.461. Data: 65 Emmen games / 66 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 38% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 37%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Jong Utrecht 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | Jong Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Monday 2 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 38% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Emmen 1.64 / Jong Utrecht 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.972 / def 1.145 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.970 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Emmen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Jong Utrecht xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Emmen vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 2 March 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong Utrecht?
Emmen 1 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Emmen vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Emmen vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 38% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Emmen and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong Utrecht?
Record (7 meetings): Emmen 7W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are Emmen and Jong Utrecht in?
Emmen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.97x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.97x) against Emmen's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 65/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
38%
2.64
25%
4.05
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.26
1.62
Jong Utrecht xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Emmen and 1.62 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen come into this having played 65 games, going 25W 11D 29L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.85 PPG from 65 outings (12W 19D 34L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Emmen's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.65 points per game from 31 outings (4W 8D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.18 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht in 62%.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 25W 11D 29L in their last 65 games (1.32 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 19D 34L in their last 65 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Emmen's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.42 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Emmen have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Emmen
0
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 8, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Emmen 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong Utrecht?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 61%, Jong Utrecht 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Emmen and 64% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Emmen's games and 58% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Emmen's matches and 64% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Emmen and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Jong Utrecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong Utrecht 1-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.64 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.62 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong Utrecht landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 38% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 37%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 62%, Jong Utrecht 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.