Emmen 2-3 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 28 as Emmen welcome Jong PSV U21 to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 5W 3D 2L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Emmen 1.20 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Emmen have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Jong PSV U21 have managed just 2 wins.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Emmen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (62 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (62 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 55% and Jong PSV U21 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Emmen 61% | Jong PSV U21 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 3.05 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.316 / defence 1.015 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.122 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.483. Emmen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 3.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Emmen games / 65 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 65% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 19%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.54 | Draw 5.88 | Jong PSV U21 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (3.05 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 65% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 85% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 78%. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 80% | Jong PSV U21 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 65% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% | BTTS 78% | xG Emmen 3.05 / Jong PSV U21 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.316 / def 1.015 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.122 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Emmen (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.05
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Jong PSV U21 xG
78%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Emmen 2 - 3 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 65% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 19% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Emmen and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
Record (7 meetings): Emmen 5W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 2W.
What form are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.32x the league average against Jong PSV U21's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 3.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (6.9%), 3-2 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
65%
1.54
17%
6.02
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
3 – 2
5.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.05
Emmen xG
Total xG
4.74
1.69
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.54
65%
Home win
6.02
17%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
70%
Over 3.5
1.43
30%
Under 3.5
3.33
51%
Over 4.5
1.96
49%
Under 4.5
2.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.57
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
5%
21.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
1%
113.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 3.05 expected goals for Emmen and 1.69 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 4.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emmen come into this having played 62 games, going 25W 10D 27L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 1.11 PPG from 62 outings (20W 9D 33L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.37 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Emmen's home form reads 12W 7D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 0.90 points per game from 29 outings (7W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.71 scored and 2.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 71%.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 25W 10D 27L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 20W 9D 33L in their last 62 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Emmen's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.48 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Jong PSV U21 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2024, when Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
0
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Emmen 2-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Emmen at 66%, Jong PSV U21 at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Emmen and 69% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Emmen's games and 66% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Emmen's matches and 69% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Emmen and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat Emmen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Emmen 2-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 3.05 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.69 xG, a combined 4.74. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.32 / defence 1.01 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.12 / defence 1.35, drawn from 62/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 65% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 19%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Jong PSV U21 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 70% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Jong PSV U21 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (62 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (62 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.37 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.