Emmen 3-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Emmen at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Emmen and Jong AZ meet at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong AZ (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jong AZ's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Emmen. A 1.00 PPG lead over Jong AZ (2.30 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Emmen, 0 for Jong AZ and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 46% versus Jong AZ 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 42% | Jong AZ 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.71 xG and Jong AZ 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.216 / defence 0.885 | Jong AZ attack 0.651 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.414. Data: 33 Emmen games / 33 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 58% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 17%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Jong AZ 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 60% | Jong AZ 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 58% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Emmen 1.71 / Jong AZ 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.216 / def 0.885 | Jong AZ attack 0.651 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Emmen (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Jong AZ xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong AZ kick off?
Emmen vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 April 2022 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Emmen 3 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Emmen vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong AZ part of?
Emmen vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 58% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Emmen and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong AZ?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 0W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are Emmen and Jong AZ in?
Emmen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.22) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.65x) against Emmen's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
58%
1.71
24%
4.15
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.52
0.81
Jong AZ xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
3%
31.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Emmen and 0.81 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen's recent record stands at 22W 5D 6L from 33 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 17L across 33 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong AZ heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 12W 0D 4L from 16 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 4W 2D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 22W 5D 6L in their last 33 games (2.15 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 11W 5D 17L in their last 33 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong AZ away?
Emmen's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.25 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Emmen or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Emmen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 8 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Emmen
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong AZ?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Jong AZ 2-3 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong AZ?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 44%, Jong AZ 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Emmen) and 44% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jong AZ in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Emmen's recent matches and 44% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Emmen's recent games and 44% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Emmen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong AZ 3-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.71 xG and Jong AZ 0.81 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.22 / defence 0.89 against Jong AZ attack 0.65 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 58% | Draw 24% | Jong AZ 17%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 42%, Jong AZ 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jong AZ's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.