Emmen 2-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Emmen (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Emmen face FC OSS.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host FC OSS at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 2W 4D 4L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Emmen are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Emmen have won 3, FC OSS 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with FC OSS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
FC OSS in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 54% versus FC OSS 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 60% | FC OSS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.50 xG and FC OSS 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.925 / defence 1.145 | FC OSS attack 0.739 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.476. Data: 48 Emmen games / 48 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 40% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 29%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | FC OSS 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 70% | FC OSS 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 40% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Emmen 1.50 / FC OSS 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.925 / def 1.145 | FC OSS attack 0.739 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Emmen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FC OSS xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs FC OSS kick off?
Emmen vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs FC OSS?
Emmen 2 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Emmen vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC OSS part of?
Emmen vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 40% chance of winning, FC OSS a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Emmen and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC OSS?
Record (4 meetings): Emmen 3W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Emmen and FC OSS in?
Emmen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Emmen vs FC OSS?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.93) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
40%
2.47
30%
3.29
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.74
1.25
FC OSS xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Emmen and 1.25 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 21W 9D 18L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS's form line: 12W 7D 29L from 48 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 4D 16L from 23 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.83 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 7D 29L in their last 48 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or FC OSS away?
Emmen's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.39 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Emmen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC OSS?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, FC OSS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when FC OSS 4-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and FC OSS?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 52%, FC OSS 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Emmen) and 48% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; FC OSS in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Emmen's recent matches and 35% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Emmen's recent games and 48% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and FC OSS tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat FC OSS 2-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.50 xG and FC OSS 1.25 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against FC OSS attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 40% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 29%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, FC OSS 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.