Emmen 1-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 47%, yet in-form Emmen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Emmen vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 January 2025 at 15:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Emmen have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Emmen's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Emmen's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, FC Eindhoven edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2024, ended Emmen 3–0 FC Eindhoven — a Emmen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 54% versus FC Eindhoven 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 59% | FC Eindhoven 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Emmen surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while FC Eindhoven have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FC Eindhoven surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Emmen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.62 xG and FC Eindhoven 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.928 / defence 1.109 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.344 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.359. FC Eindhoven have an above-average attack rating of 1.344, which lifts their away xG to 2.03. Data: built from Emmen's last 58 games and FC Eindhoven's last 59.
Result probabilities: Emmen 31% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 47%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.27 | Draw 4.42 | FC Eindhoven 2.14. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (1.62 / 2.03) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Emmen (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Emmen's last 10 home games and FC Eindhoven's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Emmen 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Eindhoven 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 22 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 31% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Emmen 1.62 / FC Eindhoven 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.928 / def 1.109 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.344 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
2.03
FC Eindhoven xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Emmen vs FC Eindhoven FAQs
What time does Emmen vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Emmen vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 19 January 2025 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Emmen 1 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Emmen vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Emmen vs FC Eindhoven is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 31% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Emmen and FC Eindhoven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Emmen vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.93x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (1.34x) against Emmen's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from Emmen's last 58 games and FC Eindhoven's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
31%
3.27
23%
4.42
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.65
2.03
FC Eindhoven xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
13%
7.58
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
4%
24.82
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Emmen vs FC Eindhoven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Emmen and 2.03 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen come into this having played 59 games, going 26W 11D 22L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.17 PPG from 59 outings (16W 21D 22L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Emmen against 1.17 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Emmen's home form reads 13W 6D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 10D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.25 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Emmen (Home) vs FC Eindhoven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Emmen
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Emmen vs FC Eindhoven Form FAQs
What form are Emmen and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 26W 11D 22L in their last 59 games (1.51 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 16W 21D 22L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Emmen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Eindhoven have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won Emmen 6-0 FC Eindhoven on 11 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Emmen
1
Draws
6
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Emmen vs FC Eindhoven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Eindhoven?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Emmen have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: FC Eindhoven 3-1 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 47%, FC Eindhoven 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Emmen) and 57% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Emmen vs FC Eindhoven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Emmen and FC Eindhoven matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Emmen's recent matches and 53% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Emmen and FC Eindhoven matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Emmen's matches and 57% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Emmen and FC Eindhoven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Emmen's recent matches and 83% of FC Eindhoven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Emmen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Emmen 1-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.62 xG and FC Eindhoven 2.03 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.34 / defence 1.11, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 31% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 47%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 59%, FC Eindhoven 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.51 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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