Emmen 3-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as Emmen welcome Almere City FC to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 4W 0D 3L from 7 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.71 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
Almere City FC — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 2W 2D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Emmen have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Almere City FC trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 44% and Almere City FC 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 38% | Almere City FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.84 xG and Almere City FC 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.030 / defence 0.786 | Almere City FC attack 1.034 / defence 1.488. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.499. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.488 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Emmen's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 16 Emmen games / 16 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 52% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Almere City FC 4.00. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 14% | Almere City FC 88%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Monday 29 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 52% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Emmen 1.84 / Almere City FC 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.030 / def 0.786 | Almere City FC attack 1.034 / def 1.488 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.499 • Poisson stance: Emmen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Almere City FC xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Almere City FC kick off?
Emmen vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 29 November 2021 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Emmen 3 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is Emmen vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Almere City FC part of?
Emmen vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 52% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Emmen and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and Almere City FC in?
Emmen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emmen's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.39
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.06
1.22
Almere City FC xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
4%
25.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Emmen and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Emmen and 1.22 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emmen come into this having played 16 games, going 9W 3D 4L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.81 PPG from 16 outings (3W 4D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Emmen's home form reads 4W 0D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.75 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC in 81%.
Last 16 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 9W 3D 4L in their last 16 games (1.88 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 3W 4D 9L in their last 16 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Almere City FC away?
Emmen's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.71 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Emmen or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Emmen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Emmen
1
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Emmen have won 1, Almere City FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Almere City FC 4-2 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 14%, Almere City FC 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Emmen) and 71% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Emmen's recent matches and 86% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Emmen's recent games and 71% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Emmen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Almere City FC 3-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.84 xG and Almere City FC 1.22 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almere City FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.03 / defence 0.79 against Almere City FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.49, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 52% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 25%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 38%, Almere City FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Almere City FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.