Emmen 2-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 11 as Emmen welcome Almere City FC to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Almere City FC — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Emmen at 1.90 PPG versus Almere City FC's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Emmen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Almere City FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Almere City FC have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Emmen.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 2–4 with Almere City FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Almere City FC have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Almere City FC trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 60% and Almere City FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Emmen 65% | Almere City FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.62 xG and Almere City FC 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.009 / defence 0.964 | Almere City FC attack 1.360 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.881 / away 1.441. Almere City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Emmen games / 48 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 34% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.94 | Draw 4.55 | Almere City FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 34% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Emmen 1.62 / Almere City FC 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.009 / def 0.964 | Almere City FC attack 1.360 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.881 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Almere City FC xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Almere City FC kick off?
Emmen vs Almere City FC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Emmen 2 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Emmen vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Almere City FC part of?
Emmen vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 34% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Emmen and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Almere City FC?
Record (6 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 4W.
What form are Emmen and Almere City FC in?
Emmen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emmen's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
34%
2.98
22%
4.54
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.51
1.89
Almere City FC xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
5%
19.69
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Emmen and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Emmen and 1.89 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emmen come into this having played 48 games, going 18W 10D 20L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.75 PPG from 48 outings (26W 6D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Emmen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Emmen's home form reads 12W 5D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.50 points per game from 24 outings (11W 3D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 2.06 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Emmen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 26W 6D 16L in their last 48 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Almere City FC away?
Emmen's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.71 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Emmen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Emmen
1
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Almere City FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Emmen have won 2, Almere City FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Emmen 2-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Emmen at 62%, Almere City FC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Emmen and 75% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Emmen's games and 75% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Emmen's matches and 75% of Almere City FC's.
Do Emmen and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Almere City FC 2-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.62 xG and Almere City FC 1.89 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against Almere City FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.86, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 34% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 44%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 65%, Almere City FC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Emmen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.