Dordrecht 1-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host VVV Venlo at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's home record at M-Scores Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
VVV Venlo — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Dordrecht) versus 1.40 (VVV Venlo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, VVV Venlo have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Dordrecht.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with VVV Venlo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VVV Venlo have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 59% and VVV Venlo 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 60% | VVV Venlo 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.08 xG and VVV Venlo 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.163 / defence 0.907 | VVV Venlo attack 0.914 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.300. Data: 63 Dordrecht games / 63 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 18%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | VVV Venlo 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 50% | VVV Venlo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Dordrecht 2.08 / VVV Venlo 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.163 / def 0.907 | VVV Venlo attack 0.914 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.08
VVV Venlo xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo?
Dordrecht 1 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo part of?
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 59% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dordrecht and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and VVV Venlo?
Record (5 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 4W.
What form are Dordrecht and VVV Venlo in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.34
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.16
1.08
VVV Venlo xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
12%
8.01
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
2%
45.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.08 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 19W 18D 26L from 63 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 19L across 63 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.19 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 13W 9D 9L from 31 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 11W 10D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.52 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo in 71%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 19W 18D 26L in their last 63 games (1.19 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 24W 20D 19L in their last 63 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or VVV Venlo away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.55 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when Dordrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
0
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 5, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Dordrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 52%, VVV Venlo 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Dordrecht and 61% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Dordrecht's games and 68% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Dordrecht's matches and 61% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Dordrecht and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out VVV Venlo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat VVV Venlo 1-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.08 xG and VVV Venlo 1.08 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.1 short of their projected output. VVV Venlo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.16 / defence 0.91 against VVV Venlo attack 0.91 / defence 1.07, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 59% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 18%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, VVV Venlo 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.19 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.