Dordrecht 1-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Jong AZ at Matchoholic Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Matchoholic Stadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Dordrecht are significantly better at Matchoholic Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jong AZ's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jong AZ — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Dordrecht, 2 for Jong AZ and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2022, ended 1–3 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 59% versus Jong AZ 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 65% | Jong AZ 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.39 xG and Jong AZ 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.687 / defence 0.936 | Jong AZ attack 0.880 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.815 / away 1.356. Dordrecht's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Dordrecht games / 71 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 43% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 30%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Jong AZ 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong AZ (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 30% | Jong AZ 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 43% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Dordrecht 1.39 / Jong AZ 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.687 / def 0.936 | Jong AZ attack 0.880 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.815 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Jong AZ xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong AZ kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Dordrecht 1 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 43% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
Record (3 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Jong AZ in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.75
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.51
1.12
Jong AZ xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.12 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht come into this having played 71 games, going 18W 15D 38L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.21 PPG from 71 outings (24W 14D 33L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 0.97 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dordrecht's home form reads 11W 9D 15L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.91 points per game from 35 outings (9W 5D 21L).
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.31 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 18W 15D 38L in their last 71 games (0.97 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 24W 14D 33L in their last 71 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong AZ away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.20 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2024, when Jong AZ won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
3
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 3, Jong AZ have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 49%, Jong AZ 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Dordrecht) and 54% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 37% of games; Jong AZ in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 46% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Dordrecht's matches and 54% of Jong AZ's.
Do Dordrecht and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Jong AZ 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Jong AZ 1-0 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.39 xG and Jong AZ 1.12 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.69 / defence 0.94 against Jong AZ attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 43% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 30%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 65%, Jong AZ 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 0.97 PPG, Jong AZ 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.