Dordrecht 1-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Jong AZ at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 15 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at M-Scores Stadion this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Dordrecht have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Dordrecht, 3 for Jong AZ and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 46% versus Jong AZ 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 63% | Jong AZ 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.06 xG and Jong AZ 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.082 / defence 0.861 | Jong AZ attack 0.981 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.249. Data: 43 Dordrecht games / 43 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 61% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 19%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 30% | Jong AZ 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 15 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 61% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Dordrecht 2.06 / Jong AZ 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.082 / def 0.861 | Jong AZ attack 0.981 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jong AZ xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong AZ kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 15 September 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Dordrecht 1 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 61% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
Record (7 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are Dordrecht and Jong AZ in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.81
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.12
1.05
Jong AZ xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
2%
41.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.05 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht come into this having played 43 games, going 23W 9D 11L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.28 PPG from 43 outings (15W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dordrecht's home form reads 14W 6D 1L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Dordrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.77 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 65%.
Defensively: Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 23W 9D 11L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong AZ away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.29 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2024, when Jong AZ won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
3
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 3, Jong AZ have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Dordrecht 3-6 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 57%, Jong AZ 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Dordrecht and 62% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Dordrecht's games and 57% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Dordrecht's matches and 62% of Jong AZ's.
Do Dordrecht and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Dordrecht and Jong AZ drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.06 xG and Jong AZ 1.05 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against Jong AZ attack 0.98 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 61% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 19%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 63%, Jong AZ 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.