Dordrecht 0-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 48%, yet in-form Helmond Sport provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Helmond Sport travel to Matchoholic Stadion to take on Dordrecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 March 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Dordrecht at Matchoholic Stadion this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Helmond Sport have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Helmond Sport — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Dordrecht's 30% rate and Helmond Sport's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 1, Helmond Sport 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Helmond Sport winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 60% versus Helmond Sport 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 66% | Helmond Sport 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.45 xG and Helmond Sport 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.787 / defence 1.135 | Helmond Sport attack 0.640 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.331. Dordrecht's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Dordrecht games / 67 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 48% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 25%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Helmond Sport 4.00. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Helmond Sport (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 30% | Helmond Sport 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Mar 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 48% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Dordrecht 1.45 / Helmond Sport 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.787 / def 1.135 | Helmond Sport attack 0.640 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Helmond Sport xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 March 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Dordrecht 0 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport part of?
Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 48% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dordrecht and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
Record (3 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 0 | Helmond Sport 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Helmond Sport (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.79) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.76
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.41
0.97
Helmond Sport xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
6%
16.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dordrecht and 0.97 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 17W 14D 36L from 67 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 37L across 67 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 0.97 PPG, Helmond Sport on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 10W 8D 15L from 33 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 6W 6D 21L across 33 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
Helmond Sport
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 17W 14D 36L in their last 67 games (0.97 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 17W 13D 37L in their last 67 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Helmond Sport away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.15 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dordrecht have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Dordrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Dordrecht
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Dordrecht 3-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 52%, Helmond Sport 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Dordrecht) and 42% (Helmond Sport).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 36% of games; Helmond Sport in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 39% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Dordrecht's recent games and 42% of Helmond Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dordrecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht and Helmond Sport finished level at 0-0 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.45 xG and Helmond Sport 0.97 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Helmond Sport landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.79 / defence 1.14 against Helmond Sport attack 0.64 / defence 1.06, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 48% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 25%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 66%, Helmond Sport 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 0.97 PPG, Helmond Sport 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.