Dordrecht vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and De Graafschap meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht at M-Scores Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 2W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 63% and De Graafschap 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 59% | De Graafschap 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.66 xG and De Graafschap 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.874 / defence 1.324 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 48 Dordrecht games / 48 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 34% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 44%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.94 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 60% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 34% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Dordrecht 1.66 / De Graafschap 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.874 / def 1.324 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.90
De Graafschap xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at M-Scores Stadion.
Where is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 34% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Dordrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 5 | De Graafschap 3W.
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.98x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
34%
2.92
22%
4.56
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.56
1.90
De Graafschap xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
5%
19.56
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.90 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 15W 13D 21L from 49 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 17L across 49 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.47 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 8W 5D 11L from 24 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 8D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.80 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 76%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 20W 12D 17L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.21 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
5
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, De Graafschap have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for Dordrecht, 75% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Dordrecht and 71% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dordrecht's games and 75% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Dordrecht's matches and 71% of De Graafschap's.
Do Dordrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.