Den Bosch 2-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 28 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Den Bosch, 1.50 for Willem II — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Willem II in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Den Bosch 1W, Willem II 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 1–4 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Willem II — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 51% versus Willem II 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 60% | Willem II 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.39 xG and Willem II 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.292 / defence 1.127 | Willem II attack 0.941 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.461. Den Bosch carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 2.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Den Bosch games / 17 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 56% | Draw 19% | Willem II 24%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.79 | Draw 5.26 | Willem II 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 60% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 28 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 56% | Draw 19% | Willem II 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 72% | xG Den Bosch 2.39 / Willem II 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.292 / def 1.127 | Willem II attack 0.941 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Willem II xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Willem II kick off?
Den Bosch vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 November 2025 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Den Bosch 2 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Den Bosch vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Willem II part of?
Den Bosch vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 56% chance of winning, Willem II a 24% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Den Bosch and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 3W.
What form are Den Bosch and Willem II in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.29x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.94x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
56%
1.78
19%
5.18
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.94
1.55
Willem II xG
1.78
56%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
9%
10.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
2%
44.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.55 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 13D 20L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.02 PPG from 55 outings (14W 14D 27L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Willem II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Den Bosch's home form reads 13W 8D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.15 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 62%.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Willem II in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 22W 13D 20L in their last 55 games (1.44 PPG), while Willem II have gone 14W 14D 27L in their last 55 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Willem II away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.74 PPG; Willem II away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Willem II in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 1-4 on 15 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Willem II 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 48%, Willem II 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Den Bosch) and 48% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Willem II in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 59% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Den Bosch's recent games and 48% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and Willem II tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Willem II in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out Willem II 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Willem II 2-1 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.39 xG and Willem II 1.55 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.29 / defence 1.13 against Willem II attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 56% | Draw 19% | Willem II 24%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 60%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.