Den Bosch 0-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and Telstar meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Telstar have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Telstar have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.10 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Den Bosch lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Telstar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Telstar — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 49% versus Telstar 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 61% | Telstar 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.66 xG and Telstar 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.916 / defence 1.193 | Telstar attack 0.812 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.298. Data: 72 Den Bosch games / 72 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 47% | Draw 24% | Telstar 29%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Telstar 3.45. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 60% | Telstar 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 47% | Draw 24% | Telstar 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Den Bosch 1.66 / Telstar 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.916 / def 1.193 | Telstar attack 0.812 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Telstar xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Telstar kick off?
Den Bosch vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Den Bosch 0 - 1 Telstar.
Where is Den Bosch vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Telstar part of?
Den Bosch vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 47% chance of winning, Telstar a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Den Bosch and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Telstar?
Record (3 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 0 | Telstar 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Telstar in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Telstar (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.81x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
47%
2.14
24%
4.14
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.92
1.26
Telstar xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
6%
18.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.26 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch come into this having played 72 games, going 24W 8D 40L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Telstar sit at 1.12 PPG from 72 outings (20W 21D 31L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.12 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Den Bosch's home form reads 17W 3D 16L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Telstar have taken 1.08 points per game from 36 outings (9W 12D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.14 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Telstar in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 24W 8D 40L in their last 72 games (1.11 PPG), while Telstar have gone 20W 21D 31L in their last 72 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Telstar away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.50 PPG; Telstar away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won 1-4 on 17 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
3
Draws
6
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Telstar?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, Telstar have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Telstar 2-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 50%, Telstar 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Den Bosch) and 56% (Telstar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 58% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Den Bosch's matches and 56% of Telstar's.
Do Den Bosch and Telstar tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Telstar in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Den Bosch 0-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.66 xG and Telstar 1.26 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Den Bosch fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.92 / defence 1.19 against Telstar attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 47% | Draw 24% | Telstar 29%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Telstar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 61%, Telstar 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Telstar's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.11 PPG, Telstar 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.