Den Bosch 1-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Roda travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 April 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Roda — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Den Bosch 1.70 PPG, Roda 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 1 for Roda and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 2–3 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Roda trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 42% versus Roda 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 56% | Roda 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.23 xG and Roda 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.873 / defence 1.067 | Roda attack 0.929 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.492. Data: 36 Den Bosch games / 36 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 31% | Draw 26% | Roda 43%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 30% | Roda 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 31% | Draw 26% | Roda 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Den Bosch 1.23 / Roda 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.873 / def 1.067 | Roda attack 0.929 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Roda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Roda xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Roda kick off?
Den Bosch vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Roda?
Den Bosch 1 - 0 Roda.
Where is Den Bosch vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Roda part of?
Den Bosch vs Roda is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 31% chance of winning, Roda a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Den Bosch and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | Roda 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and Roda in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Roda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
31%
3.20
26%
3.86
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.71
1.48
Roda xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.05
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.48 for Roda, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 13W 4D 19L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Roda's form line: 17W 12D 7L from 36 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (9W 1D 8L).
On the road, Roda have gone 8W 6D 4L from 18 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 2.03 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Roda in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 4D 19L in their last 36 games (1.19 PPG), while Roda have gone 17W 12D 7L in their last 36 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.56 PPG; Roda away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Roda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
4
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Roda have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 39%, Roda 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Den Bosch) and 61% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 61% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Den Bosch's matches and 61% of Roda's.
Do Den Bosch and Roda tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Roda in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Roda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Roda 1-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.23 xG and Roda 1.48 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Roda landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Roda attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 31% | Draw 26% | Roda 43%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, Roda 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.