Den Bosch 2-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 21 as Den Bosch welcome Jong Utrecht to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Den Bosch at 1.20 PPG versus Jong Utrecht's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong Utrecht in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Den Bosch: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Jong Utrecht, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with Den Bosch winning.
The historical record gives Den Bosch a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 48% versus Jong Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 57% | Jong Utrecht 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.85 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.972 / defence 1.068 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.761 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.300. Data: 60 Den Bosch games / 60 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 56% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 21%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Utrecht 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 60% | Jong Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 56% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Den Bosch 1.85 / Jong Utrecht 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.972 / def 1.068 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.761 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Jong Utrecht xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 January 2025 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Den Bosch 2 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 56% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
Record (7 meetings): Den Bosch 4W | Draws 2 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.97x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.29
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.91
1.06
Jong Utrecht xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
3%
30.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.06 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 15D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.67 PPG from 60 outings (7W 19D 34L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 7W 10D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.41 points per game from 29 outings (1W 9D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.87 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 7W 19D 34L in their last 60 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.07 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
3
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 62%, Jong Utrecht 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Den Bosch and 62% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Den Bosch's games and 59% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Den Bosch's matches and 62% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong Utrecht 2-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.85 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.06 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong Utrecht landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.97 / defence 1.07 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.76 / defence 1.17, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 56% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 21%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 57%, Jong Utrecht 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.