Den Bosch 1-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong PSV U21 make the trip to Stadion De Vliert to face Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 20 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.20 for Jong PSV U21. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jong PSV U21 in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Den Bosch 2W, Jong PSV U21 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 1–3 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 51% versus Jong PSV U21 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 61% | Jong PSV U21 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.72 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.981 / defence 1.243 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.179 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.357. Data: 58 Den Bosch games / 57 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 34% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 45%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.94 | Draw 4.76 | Jong PSV U21 2.22. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | Jong PSV U21 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 20 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 34% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Den Bosch 1.72 / Jong PSV U21 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.981 / def 1.243 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.179 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Jong PSV U21 xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 January 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Den Bosch 1 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 34% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 45% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21?
Record (3 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (1.18x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 58/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
34%
2.95
21%
4.67
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.71
1.99
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.95
34%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.43
Clean Sheet
14%
7.31
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
5%
21.57
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.99 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 19W 6D 32L from 57 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 23L across 57 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.19 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 13W 1D 14L from 28 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 6W 9D 13L across 28 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.61 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 19W 6D 32L in their last 57 games (1.11 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 17D 23L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.43 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 on 22 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
2
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Den Bosch 1-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 50%, Jong PSV U21 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Den Bosch and 61% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Den Bosch's games and 75% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Den Bosch's matches and 61% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong PSV U21 1-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.72 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.99 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.98 / defence 1.24 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 34% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 45%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 61%, Jong PSV U21 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.11 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.