Den Bosch 4-2 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Friday 10 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jong Ajax in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Den Bosch 0W, Jong Ajax 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2022, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 49% and Jong Ajax 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 61% | Jong Ajax 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.81 xG and Jong Ajax 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.946 / defence 1.236 | Jong Ajax attack 0.979 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.265. Data: 61 Den Bosch games / 61 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 45% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 33%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Ajax 3.03. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | Jong Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 45% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Den Bosch 1.81 / Jong Ajax 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.946 / def 1.236 | Jong Ajax attack 0.979 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Jong Ajax xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Den Bosch 4 - 2 Jong Ajax.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 45% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
Record (3 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.95x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.98x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
45%
2.24
23%
4.42
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.34
1.53
Jong Ajax xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
5%
18.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.53 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 21W 7D 33L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax's form line: 23W 19D 19L from 61 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.44 for Jong Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (14W 2D 14L).
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 8W 10D 12L from 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Den Bosch are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.93 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 77%.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 21W 7D 33L in their last 61 games (1.15 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 23W 19D 19L in their last 61 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong Ajax away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.47 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
2
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong Ajax 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 50%, Jong Ajax 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Den Bosch and 60% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Den Bosch's games and 73% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Den Bosch's matches and 60% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong Ajax 4-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.81 xG and Jong Ajax 1.53 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Jong Ajax attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 45% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 33%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 61%, Jong Ajax 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.15 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.