Den Bosch 1-3 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Den Bosch face ADO Den Haag.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 38 as Den Bosch welcome ADO Den Haag to De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 4W 4D 2L at De Vliert — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. ADO Den Haag's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, ADO Den Haag have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Den Bosch.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with ADO Den Haag winning.
It is worth noting that ADO Den Haag have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
ADO Den Haag trading profile (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 60% versus ADO Den Haag 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 58% | ADO Den Haag 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.06 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.929 / defence 0.884 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.081 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.448. ADO Den Haag's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 75 Den Bosch games / 75 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 29% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 44%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | ADO Den Haag 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 70% | ADO Den Haag 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 29% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Den Bosch 1.06 / ADO Den Haag 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.929 / def 0.884 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.081 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.38
ADO Den Haag xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Den Bosch 1 - 3 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 29% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag?
Record (9 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 1 | ADO Den Haag 6W.
What form are Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.93x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
29%
3.46
27%
3.71
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.45
1.38
ADO Den Haag xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
15%
6.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.38 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 29W 21D 27L from 77 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
ADO Den Haag, meanwhile, have gone 48W 12D 17L across 77 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 17W 13D 8L from 38 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ADO Den Haag's away record stands at 21W 8D 9L across 38 trips, a 1.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.03 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 77 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 29W 21D 27L in their last 77 games (1.40 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 48W 12D 17L in their last 77 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.68 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when ADO Den Haag won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
7
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, ADO Den Haag have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 55%, ADO Den Haag 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Den Bosch) and 58% (ADO Den Haag).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Den Bosch's games and 55% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Den Bosch's recent games and 58% of ADO Den Haag's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Den Bosch 1-3 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.06 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.38 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.08 / defence 0.70, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 29% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 44%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, ADO Den Haag 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.