De Graafschap 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Willem II meet at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 2D 2L at De Vijverberg — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Willem II (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Willem II have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Willem II hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Willem II winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Willem II have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Willem II — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 58% versus Willem II 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | Willem II 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.07 xG and Willem II 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.004 / defence 1.199 | Willem II attack 0.961 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.221. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 5 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 53% | Draw 21% | Willem II 26%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Willem II 3.85. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 53% — moderate model lean.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 53% | Draw 21% | Willem II 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG De Graafschap 2.07 / Willem II 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.004 / def 1.199 | Willem II attack 0.961 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Willem II xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Willem II kick off?
De Graafschap vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 September 2025 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Willem II?
De Graafschap 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is De Graafschap vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Willem II part of?
De Graafschap vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 53% chance of winning, Willem II a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both De Graafschap and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 0 | Willem II 4W.
What form are De Graafschap and Willem II in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Willem II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.00) and Willem II's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.96x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 42/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
53%
1.89
21%
4.72
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.48
1.41
Willem II xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
3%
30.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.41 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 19W 9D 15L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II's form line: 9W 10D 24L from 43 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Willem II.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 2.05 PPG from 22 outings (14W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Willem II have gone 4W 7D 11L from 22 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.09 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Willem II in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 19W 9D 15L in their last 43 games (1.53 PPG), while Willem II have gone 9W 10D 24L in their last 43 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Willem II away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.05 PPG; Willem II away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 0-3 on 16 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
1
Draws
4
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, Willem II have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Willem II 0-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 54%, Willem II 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (De Graafschap) and 41% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Willem II in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of De Graafschap's games and 59% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of De Graafschap's recent games and 41% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Willem II tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Willem II in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap and Willem II finished level at 1-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.07 xG and Willem II 1.41 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Willem II attack 0.96 / defence 1.25, drawn from 42/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 53% | Draw 21% | Willem II 26%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.