De Graafschap 2-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Jong Utrecht travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 4W 1D 5L at De Vijverberg — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.00 (Jong Utrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Jong Utrecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of De Graafschap: 4 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Jong Utrecht, with 4 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with De Graafschap winning.
The historical record gives De Graafschap a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 74% and Jong Utrecht 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 70% | Jong Utrecht 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.61 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.832 / defence 1.203 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.959 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.954 / away 1.475. Data: 47 De Graafschap games / 47 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 37% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 40%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Utrecht 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Jong Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 37% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG De Graafschap 1.61 / Jong Utrecht 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.832 / def 1.203 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.959 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.954 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Jong Utrecht xG
66%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap 2 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 37% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
Record (9 meetings): De Graafschap 4W | Draws 4 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.83x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
37%
2.72
23%
4.36
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.32
1.70
Jong Utrecht xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
7%
14.94
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.70 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 19W 12D 16L from 47 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 22L across 47 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.47 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 10W 4D 9L from 23 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 5W 5D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.55 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Jong Utrecht in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 19W 12D 16L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 11D 22L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Utrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.48 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
4
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 74%, Jong Utrecht at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for De Graafschap and 56% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of De Graafschap's games and 61% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of De Graafschap's matches and 56% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as De Graafschap defy the odds to beat Jong Utrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong Utrecht 2-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.61 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.70 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.83 / defence 1.20 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 37% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 40%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 70%, Jong Utrecht 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.47 PPG, Jong Utrecht 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.