De Graafschap 0-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Helmond Sport at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 3W 3D 3L from 9 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vijverberg this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
De Graafschap are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Helmond Sport trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 56% versus Helmond Sport 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 72% | Helmond Sport 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.09 xG and Helmond Sport 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.815 / defence 1.020 | Helmond Sport attack 0.576 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.549. Data: 18 De Graafschap games / 18 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 31% | Helmond Sport 30%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Helmond Sport 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 44% | Helmond Sport 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 31% | Helmond Sport 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG De Graafschap 1.09 / Helmond Sport 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.815 / def 1.020 | Helmond Sport attack 0.576 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Helmond Sport xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kick off?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap 0 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport part of?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 39% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both De Graafschap and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.81) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.26
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.00
0.91
Helmond Sport xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.91 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 10W 3D 5L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 4W 4D 10L from 18 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helmond Sport.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 0.89 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 4W 4D 10L in their last 18 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Helmond Sport away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.50 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.62 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Helmond Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Helmond Sport in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
1
Draws
3
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Helmond Sport 0-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Helmond Sport see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 50%, Helmond Sport 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (De Graafschap) and 38% (Helmond Sport).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 38% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of De Graafschap's recent games and 38% of Helmond Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Helmond Sport defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat De Graafschap 0-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.09 xG and Helmond Sport 0.91 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Helmond Sport attack 0.58 / defence 1.12, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 39% | Draw 31% | Helmond Sport 30%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Helmond Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 72%, Helmond Sport 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Helmond Sport winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.