De Graafschap 2-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and FC OSS meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, FC OSS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: De Graafschap 1W, FC OSS 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with FC OSS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 58% versus FC OSS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 54% | FC OSS 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.48 xG and FC OSS 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.841 / defence 0.867 | FC OSS attack 0.943 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.321. Data: 50 De Graafschap games / 50 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 27%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | FC OSS 3.70. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG De Graafschap 1.48 / FC OSS 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.841 / def 0.867 | FC OSS attack 0.943 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.08
FC OSS xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC OSS kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
De Graafschap 2 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC OSS part of?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 46% chance of winning, FC OSS a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both De Graafschap and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.84) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.94x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.77
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.56
1.08
FC OSS xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
6%
16.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.08 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 50 games, going 17W 15D 18L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 1.08 PPG from 50 outings (15W 9D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.08 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
De Graafschap's home form reads 6W 11D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (7W 3D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.28 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 15D 18L in their last 50 games (1.32 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 15W 9D 26L in their last 50 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC OSS away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.16 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.96 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FC OSS in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
De Graafschap
2
Draws
1
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 7, FC OSS have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 60%, FC OSS 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (De Graafschap) and 68% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC OSS in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of De Graafschap's games and 56% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of De Graafschap's recent games and 68% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and FC OSS tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC OSS 2-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.48 xG and FC OSS 1.08 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.84 / defence 0.87 against FC OSS attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 46% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 27%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 54%, FC OSS 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC OSS's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.32 PPG, FC OSS 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.