De Graafschap 0-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Den Bosch (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward De Graafschap. A 1.40 PPG lead over Den Bosch (1.50 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Den Bosch in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 46% versus Den Bosch 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 62% | Den Bosch 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.36 xG and Den Bosch 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.791 / defence 1.090 | Den Bosch attack 0.780 / defence 1.511. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.448. De Graafschap's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.511 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 De Graafschap games / 26 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 40% | Draw 27% | Den Bosch 34%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Den Bosch 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | Den Bosch 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 40% | Draw 27% | Den Bosch 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG De Graafschap 1.36 / Den Bosch 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.791 / def 1.090 | Den Bosch attack 0.780 / def 1.511 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Den Bosch xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kick off?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
De Graafschap 0 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch part of?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 40% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both De Graafschap and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
Record (1 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.79x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.78x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.76
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.60
1.23
Den Bosch xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
9%
11.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.23 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 13W 6D 7L from 26 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 16L across 26 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 4W 4D 5L from 13 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.73 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 2W 2D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.04 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 13W 6D 7L in their last 26 games (1.73 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 8W 2D 16L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Den Bosch away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.23 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.62 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
3
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, Den Bosch have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when De Graafschap 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 46%, Den Bosch 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (De Graafschap) and 62% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 31% of games; Den Bosch in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 54% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of De Graafschap's matches and 62% of Den Bosch's.
Do De Graafschap and Den Bosch tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at De Graafschap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap and Den Bosch finished level at 0-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.36 xG and Den Bosch 1.23 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against Den Bosch attack 0.78 / defence 1.51, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 40% | Draw 27% | Den Bosch 34%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 62%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Den Bosch's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.