De Graafschap vs Den Bosch – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for De Graafschap against 0.60 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Den Bosch in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours De Graafschap, who have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Den Bosch — a 3D 2W return for the visitors.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives De Graafschap a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 75% and Den Bosch 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 68% | Den Bosch 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.11 xG and Den Bosch 2.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.397 | Den Bosch attack 1.000 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 42 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 36% | Draw 19% | Den Bosch 45%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.78 | Draw 5.26 | Den Bosch 2.22. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 80% | Total xG 4.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 2.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.48 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 80%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Den Bosch 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Sep 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 36% | Draw 19% | Den Bosch 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 80% | xG De Graafschap 2.11 / Den Bosch 2.37 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.397 | Den Bosch attack 1.000 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.37
Den Bosch xG
80%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kick off?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 27 September 2026 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch part of?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 36% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 45% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both De Graafschap and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 5W | Draws 3 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.01x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.00x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.37.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (6.7%), 1-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
36%
2.81
19%
5.17
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
2 – 1
6.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
4.48
2.37
Den Bosch xG
2.81
36%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.25
20%
BTTS No
4.93
Clean Sheet
9%
10.72
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
3%
30.13
5%
18.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.37 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 4.48.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 18W 11D 15L from 44 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 19L across 44 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.25 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 9W 4D 8L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 6W 3D 12L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.73 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Den Bosch in 77%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Den Bosch away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.48 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
3
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, Den Bosch have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when De Graafschap 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for De Graafschap, 76% for Den Bosch — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 81% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of De Graafschap's games and 76% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 81% of Den Bosch's.
Do De Graafschap and Den Bosch tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.