Cambuur 2-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cambuur (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambuur face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees De Graafschap travel to Kooi Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 October 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 8W 2D 0L at Kooi Stadion — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cambuur are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Cambuur have won 3, De Graafschap 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 3–2 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cambuur in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 49% versus De Graafschap 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 47% | De Graafschap 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.03 xG and De Graafschap 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.286 / defence 1.057 | De Graafschap attack 1.056 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.754 / away 1.399. Cambuur carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Cambuur games / 47 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 49% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 30%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.04 | Draw 4.76 | De Graafschap 3.33. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 80% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Oct 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 49% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Cambuur 2.03 / De Graafschap 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.286 / def 1.057 | De Graafschap attack 1.056 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.754 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.56
De Graafschap xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs De Graafschap kick off?
Cambuur vs De Graafschap kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 11 October 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Cambuur 2 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Cambuur vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs De Graafschap part of?
Cambuur vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 49% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 30% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Cambuur and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and De Graafschap?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 3W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Cambuur and De Graafschap in?
Cambuur (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.29) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
49%
2.06
21%
4.67
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.59
1.56
De Graafschap xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
13%
7.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
4%
25.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Cambuur and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.56 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 28W 8D 13L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 22W 12D 15L from 49 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.88 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 2.04 PPG from 24 outings (15W 4D 5L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 6W 8D 10L from 24 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.80 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 28W 8D 13L in their last 49 games (1.88 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 22W 12D 15L in their last 49 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or De Graafschap away?
Cambuur's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.04 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Cambuur or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cambuur's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Cambuur
0
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and De Graafschap?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 4, De Graafschap have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when De Graafschap 3-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and De Graafschap?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 58%, De Graafschap 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Cambuur) and 58% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; De Graafschap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Cambuur's games and 67% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Cambuur's matches and 58% of De Graafschap's.
Do Cambuur and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat De Graafschap 2-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.03 xG and De Graafschap 1.56 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.29 / defence 1.06 against De Graafschap attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 49% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 30%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 47%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
De Graafschap's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.88 PPG, De Graafschap 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.