Cambuur 3-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cambuur at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambuur host Almere City FC at Kooi Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kooi Stadion, Cambuur have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cambuur at 2.30 PPG versus Almere City FC's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Almere City FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cambuur, 0 for Almere City FC and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cambuur in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 56% versus Almere City FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 55% | Almere City FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.31 xG and Almere City FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.127 / defence 0.784 | Almere City FC attack 1.154 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.450. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Cambuur's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Cambuur games / 28 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 59% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Almere City FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Almere City FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 59% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Cambuur 2.31 / Almere City FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.127 / def 0.784 | Almere City FC attack 1.154 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Almere City FC xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Almere City FC kick off?
Cambuur vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Almere City FC?
Cambuur 3 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is Cambuur vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Almere City FC part of?
Cambuur vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 59% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Cambuur and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Almere City FC?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are Cambuur and Almere City FC in?
Cambuur (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
59%
1.69
20%
4.92
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.62
1.31
Almere City FC xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
10%
10.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
2%
49.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.31 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambuur's recent record stands at 39W 12D 11L from 62 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 32L across 62 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 21W 6D 4L from 31 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 8W 6D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.31 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 39W 12D 11L in their last 62 games (2.08 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 17W 13D 32L in their last 62 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Almere City FC away?
Cambuur's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.23 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cambuur
1
Draws
0
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Almere City FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, Almere City FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Cambuur 3-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Almere City FC?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 58%, Almere City FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Cambuur) and 58% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Almere City FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Cambuur's recent matches and 52% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Cambuur's matches and 58% of Almere City FC's.
Do Cambuur and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Almere City FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Almere City FC 3-2 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.31 xG and Almere City FC 1.31 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.13 / defence 0.78 against Almere City FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 59% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 20%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 55%, Almere City FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.