Almere City FC 1-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Roda travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Almere City FC are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Almere City FC, 2 for Roda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Roda in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 47% versus Roda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 58% | Roda 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.04 xG and Roda 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.238 / defence 0.900 | Roda attack 1.034 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.565. Data: 23 Almere City FC games / 62 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 50% | Draw 23% | Roda 27%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Roda 3.70. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 50% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 50% | Draw 23% | Roda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Almere City FC 2.04 / Roda 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.238 / def 0.900 | Roda attack 1.034 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.565 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Roda xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Roda kick off?
Almere City FC vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Roda?
Almere City FC 1 - 2 Roda.
Where is Almere City FC vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Roda part of?
Almere City FC vs Roda is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 50% chance of winning, Roda a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Almere City FC and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Roda?
Record (5 meetings): Almere City FC 3W | Draws 0 | Roda 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and Roda in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Roda (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.37
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.49
1.46
Roda xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
13%
7.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
3%
28.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.46 for Roda, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 57 games, going 16W 12D 29L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.40 PPG from 57 outings (21W 17D 19L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.05 PPG, Roda on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 9W 7D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.25 points per game from 28 outings (9W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.47 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Roda in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 16W 12D 29L in their last 57 games (1.05 PPG), while Roda have gone 21W 17D 19L in their last 57 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.21 PPG; Roda away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Roda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Roda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Almere City FC
0
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Roda?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 3, Roda have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Almere City FC 1-2 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, Roda 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Almere City FC and 68% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Almere City FC's games and 68% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Almere City FC's matches and 68% of Roda's.
Do Almere City FC and Roda tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Roda in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Almere City FC 1-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.04 xG and Roda 1.46 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.24 / defence 0.90 against Roda attack 1.03 / defence 0.93, drawn from 23/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 50% | Draw 23% | Roda 27%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 58%, Roda 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.05 PPG, Roda 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.