Almere City FC vs NAC Breda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Almere City FC, 1.70 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 62% versus NAC Breda 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 69% | NAC Breda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.55 xG and NAC Breda 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.866 / defence 0.632 | NAC Breda attack 1.144 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Almere City FC's defence rating of 0.632 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Almere City FC games / 11 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 49% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 26%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | NAC Breda 3.85. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 40% | NAC Breda 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 49% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Almere City FC 1.55 / NAC Breda 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.866 / def 0.632 | NAC Breda attack 1.144 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
NAC Breda xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs NAC Breda kick off?
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda part of?
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 49% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Almere City FC and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and NAC Breda in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.87) and NAC Breda's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.14x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.94
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.61
1.06
NAC Breda xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
5%
18.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.06 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 25W 5D 15L from 45 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 20L across 45 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NAC Breda heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 14W 2D 6L from 22 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 4W 8D 10L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.27 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 25W 5D 15L in their last 45 games (1.78 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or NAC Breda away?
Almere City FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 2.00 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, NAC Breda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Almere City FC 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, NAC Breda 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Almere City FC and 68% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; NAC Breda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 59% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Almere City FC's matches and 68% of NAC Breda's.
Do Almere City FC and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.