Almere City FC 1-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 38 as Almere City FC welcome MVV to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
MVV — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Almere City FC) versus 1.80 (MVV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, MVV in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Almere City FC have won 1, MVV 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with MVV winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
MVV in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 53% versus MVV 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 59% | MVV 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.56 xG and MVV 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.793 / defence 0.986 | MVV attack 0.975 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.311. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Almere City FC games / 75 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 44% | Draw 25% | MVV 31%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | MVV 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | MVV 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 44% | Draw 25% | MVV 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Almere City FC 1.56 / MVV 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.793 / def 0.986 | MVV attack 0.975 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
MVV xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs MVV kick off?
Almere City FC vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs MVV?
Almere City FC 1 - 0 MVV.
Where is Almere City FC vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs MVV part of?
Almere City FC vs MVV is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 44% chance of winning, MVV a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Almere City FC and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and MVV?
Record (3 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 0 | MVV 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and MVV in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. MVV (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.79) and MVV's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
44%
2.25
25%
4.03
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.82
1.26
MVV xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.26 for MVV, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 31W 15D 29L from 75 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 30W 9D 36L across 75 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.44 PPG, MVV on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 14W 8D 15L from 37 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 12W 3D 22L across 37 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.44 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV in 63%.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and MVV in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 31W 15D 29L in their last 75 games (1.44 PPG), while MVV have gone 30W 9D 36L in their last 75 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or MVV away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.35 PPG; MVV away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and MVV runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2025, when Almere City FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Almere City FC
1
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and MVV?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 3, MVV have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when MVV 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and MVV?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 51%, MVV 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Almere City FC and 70% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Almere City FC's games and 60% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Almere City FC's matches and 70% of MVV's.
Do Almere City FC and MVV tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, MVV in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out MVV 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat MVV 1-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.56 xG and MVV 1.26 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. MVV landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.79 / defence 0.99 against MVV attack 0.97 / defence 1.17, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 44% | Draw 25% | MVV 31%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 59%, MVV 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
MVV's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.44 PPG, MVV 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.