Almere City FC 2-3 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees FC Volendam travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 December 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's home record at Yanmar Stadion: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 5W 4D 0L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.11 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Volendam are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, FC Volendam in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Almere City FC, 1 for FC Volendam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 2–3 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Volendam trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 74% and FC Volendam 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 68% | FC Volendam 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.31 xG and FC Volendam 2.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.965 / defence 1.373 | FC Volendam attack 1.089 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.566. Data: 19 Almere City FC games / 19 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 20% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 60%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 5.00 | Draw 5.26 | FC Volendam 1.67. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 2.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 67% | FC Volendam 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 20% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG Almere City FC 1.31 / FC Volendam 2.34 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.965 / def 1.373 | FC Volendam attack 1.089 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.566 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
2.34
FC Volendam xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs FC Volendam kick off?
Almere City FC vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 December 2021 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Almere City FC 2 - 3 FC Volendam.
Where is Almere City FC vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs FC Volendam part of?
Almere City FC vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 20% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 60% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Almere City FC and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and FC Volendam in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.96) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 2.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 1-3 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
20%
4.90
19%
5.21
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
1 – 3
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.65
2.34
FC Volendam xG
4.90
20%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
10%
10.39
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
2%
50.91
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Almere City FC and 2.34 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 4W 5D 10L from 19 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 1L across 19 games — 2.21 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 1.32 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 2W 2D 5L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 5W 4D 0L across 9 trips, a 2.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.47 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 4W 5D 10L in their last 19 games (0.89 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 12W 6D 1L in their last 19 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.89 PPG; FC Volendam away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and FC Volendam runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Almere City FC's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Almere City FC 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Almere City FC at 67%, FC Volendam at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Almere City FC and 56% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Almere City FC's games and 67% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Almere City FC's matches and 56% of FC Volendam's.
Do Almere City FC and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Almere City FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Almere City FC 2-3 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.31 xG and FC Volendam 2.34 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.37 against FC Volendam attack 1.09 / defence 1.15, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 20% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 60%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 68%, FC Volendam 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.