Almere City FC vs Den Bosch – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC at Yanmar Stadion this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.40 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 66% and Den Bosch 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 74% | Den Bosch 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.40 xG and Den Bosch 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.935 / defence 0.806 | Den Bosch attack 1.053 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.827 / away 1.580. Data: 51 Almere City FC games / 51 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 39% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 36%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Den Bosch 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 40% | Den Bosch 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 39% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Almere City FC 1.40 / Den Bosch 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.935 / def 0.806 | Den Bosch attack 1.053 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.827 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Den Bosch xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Den Bosch kick off?
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch part of?
Almere City FC vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 39% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Almere City FC and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
Record (9 meetings): Almere City FC 4W | Draws 2 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and Den Bosch in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.94) and Den Bosch's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.05x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.91
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.34
Den Bosch xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.34 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC come into this having played 53 games, going 28W 6D 19L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.30 PPG from 53 outings (19W 12D 22L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.30 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Almere City FC's home form reads 15W 3D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (8W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.70 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Den Bosch in 74%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 28W 6D 19L in their last 53 games (1.70 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 19W 12D 22L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Den Bosch away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.92 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 5-2 on 21 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
From 9 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Den Bosch have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Den Bosch?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 52%, Den Bosch 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Almere City FC and 72% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Almere City FC's games and 64% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Almere City FC's matches and 72% of Den Bosch's.
Do Almere City FC and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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