ADO Den Haag 1-3 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Willem II travel to Bingoal Stadion to take on ADO Den Haag. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 March 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ADO Den Haag stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
ADO Den Haag at Bingoal Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Willem II have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: ADO Den Haag 1.90 PPG, Willem II 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ADO Den Haag register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Willem II in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for ADO Den Haag, 1 for Willem II and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Willem II winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 61% versus Willem II 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 60% | Willem II 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.32 xG and Willem II 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.829 / defence 1.018 | Willem II attack 1.049 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.311. Data: 67 ADO Den Haag games / 28 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 35% | Draw 26% | Willem II 39%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Willem II 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 60% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 35% | Draw 26% | Willem II 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.32 / Willem II 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.829 / def 1.018 | Willem II attack 1.049 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Willem II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Willem II xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Willem II kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Willem II?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 3 Willem II.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Willem II part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 35% chance of winning, Willem II a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Willem II?
Record (1 meetings): ADO Den Haag 0W | Draws 0 | Willem II 1W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Willem II in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
ADO Den Haag's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
35%
2.84
26%
3.89
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
2.72
1.40
Willem II xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
10%
9.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.40 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ADO Den Haag come into this having played 62 games, going 29W 16D 17L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.24 PPG from 62 outings (21W 14D 27L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Willem II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
ADO Den Haag's home form reads 15W 9D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 0.87 points per game from 31 outings (6W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.26 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Willem II in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 29W 16D 17L in their last 62 games (1.66 PPG), while Willem II have gone 21W 14D 27L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Willem II away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.74 PPG; Willem II away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ADO Den Haag and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
ADO Den Haag have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when ADO Den Haag won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Willem II 0-1 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 64%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for ADO Den Haag and 61% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of ADO Den Haag's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 61% of Willem II's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Willem II tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Willem II in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat ADO Den Haag 1-3 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.32 xG and Willem II 1.40 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Willem II attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 67/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 35% | Draw 26% | Willem II 39%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 60%, Willem II 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Willem II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.