ADO Den Haag 0-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WerkTalent Stadion plays host to ADO Den Haag versus Vitesse in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 26 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at WerkTalent Stadion this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — ADO Den Haag are significantly better at WerkTalent Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. ADO Den Haag's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Vitesse's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — ADO Den Haag register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Vitesse in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: ADO Den Haag 2W, Vitesse 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Vitesse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Vitesse — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 62% and Vitesse 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 68% | Vitesse 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 2.15 xG and Vitesse 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.178 / defence 0.874 | Vitesse attack 0.938 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.568. Data: 60 ADO Den Haag games / 60 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 57% | Draw 21% | Vitesse 22%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Vitesse 4.55. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 70% | Vitesse 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: WerkTalent Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 57% | Draw 21% | Vitesse 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG ADO Den Haag 2.15 / Vitesse 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.178 / def 0.874 | Vitesse attack 0.938 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Vitesse xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 January 2026 at WerkTalent Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse?
ADO Den Haag 0 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at WerkTalent Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 57% chance of winning, Vitesse a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Vitesse?
Record (3 meetings): ADO Den Haag 2W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Vitesse in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.18) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.94x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.72
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.44
1.28
Vitesse xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
12%
8.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
3%
39.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.28 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 37W 9D 14L from 60 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 19W 17D 24L across 60 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 21W 2D 7L from 30 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 7W 10D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.48 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Vitesse in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Vitesse in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 37W 9D 14L in their last 60 games (2.00 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Vitesse away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.17 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
1
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 2, Vitesse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when ADO Den Haag 0-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Vitesse?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 63%, Vitesse 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ADO Den Haag and 67% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of ADO Den Haag's games and 60% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 67% of Vitesse's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Vitesse tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ADO Den Haag's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 3, as ADO Den Haag and Vitesse drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.15 xG and Vitesse 1.28 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Vitesse landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.18 / defence 0.87 against Vitesse attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 57% | Draw 21% | Vitesse 22%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 68%, Vitesse 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.