ADO Den Haag 3-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
ADO Den Haag welcome NAC Breda to Bingoal Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, ADO Den Haag have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ADO Den Haag's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, NAC Breda stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NAC Breda — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of ADO Den Haag's games and 60% of NAC Breda's (from ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of ADO Den Haag: 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for NAC Breda, with 0 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2023, ended ADO Den Haag 2–1 NAC Breda — a ADO Den Haag win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both ADO Den Haag and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 64% and NAC Breda 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 62% | NAC Breda 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.74 xG and NAC Breda 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.243 / defence 0.997 | NAC Breda attack 1.424 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.369. NAC Breda have an above-average attack rating of 1.424, which lifts their away xG to 1.94. Data: built from ADO Den Haag's last 56 games and NAC Breda's last 56.
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 34% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 42%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.94 | Draw 4.22 | NAC Breda 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.94) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 1), yet NAC Breda are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (ADO Den Haag's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ADO Den Haag 80% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 19 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 34% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG ADO Den Haag 1.74 / NAC Breda 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.243 / def 0.997 | NAC Breda attack 1.424 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.94
NAC Breda xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 15 December 2023 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
ADO Den Haag 3 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda part of?
ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 19) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 34% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.24) and NAC Breda's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ADO Den Haag's last 56 games and NAC Breda's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
34%
2.94
24%
4.22
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.68
1.94
NAC Breda xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
14%
6.98
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
5%
20.50
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.94 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 21W 19D 16L from 56 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 26W 9D 21L across 56 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: ADO Den Haag on 1.46 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 9W 9D 9L from their last 27 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 12W 3D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.77 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 71%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
ADO Den Haag (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ADO Den Haag
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 21W 19D 16L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 26W 9D 21L in their last 56 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.33 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2021, when NAC Breda won NAC Breda 3-0 ADO Den Haag.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, ADO Den Haag have won 6, NAC Breda have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2024: NAC Breda 2-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ADO Den Haag at 70%, NAC Breda at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for ADO Den Haag and 78% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of ADO Den Haag's games and 70% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 78% of NAC Breda's.
Do ADO Den Haag and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 89% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat NAC Breda 3-1 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.74 xG and NAC Breda 1.94 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NAC Breda landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.24 / defence 1.00 against NAC Breda attack 1.42 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 34% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 42%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 62%, NAC Breda 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.46 PPG, NAC Breda 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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