ADO Den Haag 0-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag host FC OSS at Bingoal Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 December 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ADO Den Haag stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's home record at Bingoal Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, ADO Den Haag have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, ADO Den Haag have won 1, FC OSS 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
ADO Den Haag trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC OSS trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 61% versus FC OSS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 61% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.63 xG and FC OSS 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.912 / defence 1.083 | FC OSS attack 0.793 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.364. Data: 55 ADO Den Haag games / 54 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 48% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 27%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | FC OSS 3.70. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: ADO Den Haag 60% | FC OSS 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Dec 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 48% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.63 / FC OSS 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.912 / def 1.083 | FC OSS attack 0.793 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.17
FC OSS xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 December 2022 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS?
ADO Den Haag 0 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS part of?
ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 48% chance of winning, FC OSS a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both ADO Den Haag and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and FC OSS?
Record (2 meetings): ADO Den Haag 1W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and FC OSS in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ADO Den Haag's attack at 0.91x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.08
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
2.80
1.17
FC OSS xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
5%
18.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.17 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ADO Den Haag come into this having played 54 games, going 26W 12D 16L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 1.00 PPG from 54 outings (15W 9D 30L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
ADO Den Haag's home form reads 14W 7D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (7W 3D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.19 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and FC OSS in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 26W 12D 16L in their last 54 games (1.67 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 15W 9D 30L in their last 54 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or FC OSS away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.81 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ADO Den Haag and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
ADO Den Haag go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2024, when ADO Den Haag won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
ADO Den Haag
2
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 8, FC OSS have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when FC OSS 3-4 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and FC OSS?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 63%, FC OSS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for ADO Den Haag and 67% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of ADO Den Haag's games and 52% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 67% of FC OSS's.
Do ADO Den Haag and FC OSS tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ADO Den Haag's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 18, as ADO Den Haag and FC OSS drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.63 xG and FC OSS 1.17 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC OSS landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against FC OSS attack 0.79 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 48% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 27%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 61%, FC OSS 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.