Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sudtirol make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Vicenza Virtus (all games): 2W 3D 3L across 8 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.12 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sudtirol have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.12 PPG for Vicenza Virtus against 1.50 for Sudtirol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Vicenza Virtus — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 62% versus Sudtirol 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 75% | Sudtirol 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.34 xG and Sudtirol 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.845 / defence 1.298 | Sudtirol attack 1.017 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Vicenza Virtus games / 45 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 30% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 44%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sudtirol 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 67% | Sudtirol 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 30% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.34 / Sudtirol 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.845 / def 1.298 | Sudtirol attack 1.017 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Sudtirol xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 30% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Sudtirol in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (0.84) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.02x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
30%
3.39
27%
3.73
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
3.01
1.67
Sudtirol xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
6%
17.90
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.67 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 3D 3L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Vicenza Virtus's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.12 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Sudtirol away?
Vicenza Virtus's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.33 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 50%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Vicenza Virtus, 67% for Sudtirol — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Vicenza Virtus and 67% for Sudtirol. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 33% of games; Sudtirol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 67% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 67% of Sudtirol's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.