Vicenza Virtus 1-2 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Vicenza Virtus take on Perugia.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Vicenza Virtus versus Perugia in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Monday 18 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza Virtus have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Vicenza Virtus are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Perugia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Perugia away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Vicenza Virtus, 1.10 for Perugia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vicenza Virtus 0W, Perugia 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Perugia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vicenza Virtus — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Perugia — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 47% versus Perugia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vicenza Virtus 44% | Perugia 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 0.94 xG and Perugia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.926 / defence 1.176 | Perugia attack 0.886 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.039. Data: 34 Vicenza Virtus games / 34 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 28% | Draw 36% | Perugia 36%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Perugia 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Vicenza Virtus 50% | Perugia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 28% | Draw 36% | Perugia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Vicenza Virtus 0.94 / Perugia 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.926 / def 1.176 | Perugia attack 0.886 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Perugia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia?
Vicenza Virtus 1 - 2 Perugia.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 28% chance of winning, Perugia a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Perugia?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 0 | Perugia 1W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Perugia in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Perugia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Perugia's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.89x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.55
36%
2.76
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.02
1.08
Perugia xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.3 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.08 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 0.74 PPG on a 6W 7D 21L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Perugia's form line: 11W 16D 7L from 34 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Perugia are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vicenza Virtus have posted 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 7W 8D 2L from 17 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Perugia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.03 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Current Season
Perugia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Perugia in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 6W 7D 21L in their last 34 games (0.74 PPG), while Perugia have gone 11W 16D 7L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.00 PPG; Perugia away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Perugia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
2
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Perugia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 1-2 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Perugia?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 53%, Perugia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Vicenza Virtus) and 41% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Perugia in 47%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 53% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 41% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Perugia tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Perugia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Perugia edge out Vicenza Virtus 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Vicenza Virtus 1-2 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 0.94 xG and Perugia 1.08 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Perugia outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.93 / defence 1.18 against Perugia attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 28% | Draw 36% | Perugia 36%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 44%, Perugia 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Perugia's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Perugia arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.