Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus host Mantova at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.33 conceded. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Mantova's 1.90 PPG return is 0.57 points per game ahead of Vicenza Virtus's 1.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mantova trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 67% and Mantova 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 100% | Mantova 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.46 xG and Mantova 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.056 / defence 1.245 | Mantova attack 1.064 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Vicenza Virtus games / 41 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 36% | Draw 24% | Mantova 39%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Mantova 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 67% | Mantova 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 36% | Draw 24% | Mantova 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.46 / Mantova 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.056 / def 1.245 | Mantova attack 1.064 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Mantova (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Mantova xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 36% chance of winning, Mantova a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Mantova in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 W-L-D. Mantova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vicenza Virtus's attack at 1.06x the league average against Mantova's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
36%
2.76
24%
4.12
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
3.00
1.53
Mantova xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.53 for Mantova, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vicenza Virtus's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 0L across 3 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mantova by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vicenza Virtus heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Mantova in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Mantova in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Mantova have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vicenza Virtus at 67%, Mantova at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Vicenza Virtus and 67% for Mantova. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 100% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 67% of Mantova's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Mantova tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Mantova in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.