Vicenza Virtus 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus host Juve Stabia at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.33 conceded. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.33 PPG (Vicenza Virtus) versus 1.00 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vicenza Virtus register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Juve Stabia in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Vicenza Virtus in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 67% versus Juve Stabia 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 100% | Juve Stabia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.33 xG and Juve Stabia 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.051 / defence 1.243 | Juve Stabia attack 0.954 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.209. Data: 3 Vicenza Virtus games / 41 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 35% | Draw 25% | Juve Stabia 40%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Juve Stabia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 67% | Juve Stabia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 35% | Draw 25% | Juve Stabia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.33 / Juve Stabia 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.051 / def 1.243 | Juve Stabia attack 0.954 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Juve Stabia xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia?
Vicenza Virtus 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 35% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Juve Stabia in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 W-L-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Juve Stabia's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
35%
2.86
25%
3.93
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.77
1.43
Juve Stabia xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.43 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vicenza Virtus's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vicenza Virtus on 1.33 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Juve Stabia?
From 1 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Vicenza Virtus 1-1 Juve Stabia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 67%, Juve Stabia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Vicenza Virtus and 67% for Juve Stabia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 33% of games; Juve Stabia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 33% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 67% of Juve Stabia's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vicenza Virtus and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vicenza Virtus and Juve Stabia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 1.33 xG and Juve Stabia 1.43 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 1.05 / defence 1.24 against Juve Stabia attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 35% | Draw 25% | Juve Stabia 40%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 100%, Juve Stabia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vicenza Virtus 1.33 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vicenza Virtus conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.