Vicenza Virtus 1-1 Crotone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vicenza Virtus at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Crotone travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Vicenza Virtus. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 6 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vicenza Virtus stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza Virtus have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Crotone — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Crotone have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Vicenza Virtus are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vicenza Virtus, 0 for Crotone and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Vicenza Virtus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Vicenza Virtus in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Crotone in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 47% versus Crotone 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 47% | Crotone 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.48 xG and Crotone 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.941 / defence 1.138 | Crotone attack 0.721 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.085. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing Vicenza Virtus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Vicenza Virtus games / 32 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 48% | Draw 32% | Crotone 20%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Crotone 5.00. Vicenza Virtus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vicenza Virtus as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vicenza Virtus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vicenza Virtus 50% | Crotone 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 48% | Draw 32% | Crotone 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.48 / Crotone 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.941 / def 1.138 | Crotone attack 0.721 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Vicenza Virtus (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Crotone xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 6 April 2022 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone?
Vicenza Virtus 1 - 1 Crotone.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 48% chance of winning, Crotone a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Vicenza Virtus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Crotone?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 1W | Draws 0 | Crotone 0W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Crotone in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Crotone (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Crotone's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Crotone's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vicenza Virtus Win
48%
2.07
32%
3.15
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.37
0.89
Crotone xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
5%
22.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 0.89 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 6W 6D 20L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Crotone's form line: 3W 11D 18L from 32 games, 0.62 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vicenza Virtus on 0.75 PPG, Crotone on 0.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vicenza Virtus have posted 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L).
On the road, Crotone have gone 0W 3D 13L from 16 away games — 0.19 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crotone's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vicenza Virtus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 1.00 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Current Season
Crotone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Crotone in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 6W 6D 20L in their last 32 games (0.75 PPG), while Crotone have gone 3W 11D 18L in their last 32 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Crotone away?
Vicenza Virtus's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.00 PPG; Crotone away: 0.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vicenza Virtus and Crotone runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
0
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, Crotone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 1-1 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Crotone?
Vicenza Virtus have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 50%, Crotone 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Vicenza Virtus) and 50% (Crotone).
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 38% of games; Crotone in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Crotone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 56% of Crotone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 50% of Crotone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Crotone tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Crotone in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vicenza Virtus and Crotone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 33, as Vicenza Virtus and Crotone drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 1.48 xG and Crotone 0.89 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Crotone attack 0.72 / defence 1.48, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 48% | Draw 32% | Crotone 20%, with Vicenza Virtus to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 47%, Crotone 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Crotone's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vicenza Virtus 0.75 PPG, Crotone 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crotone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.