Ternana 1-4 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Venezia at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 April 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Ternana — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Venezia have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Venezia's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Venezia — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ternana have won 0, Venezia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2022, ended 1–2 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Venezia in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 55% versus Venezia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 51% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.30 xG and Venezia 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.063 / defence 1.031 | Venezia attack 0.778 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 0.961. Data: 71 Ternana games / 33 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 48% | Draw 32% | Venezia 21%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Venezia 4.76. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Venezia (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 50% | Venezia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 48% | Draw 32% | Venezia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Ternana 1.30 / Venezia 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.063 / def 1.031 | Venezia attack 0.778 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.114 / away 0.961 • Poisson stance: Ternana (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Venezia xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Venezia kick off?
Ternana vs Venezia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Venezia?
Ternana 1 - 4 Venezia.
Where is Ternana vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Venezia part of?
Ternana vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 48% chance of winning, Venezia a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ternana and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 0 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Ternana and Venezia in?
Ternana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Venezia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ternana's attack rating (1.06) and Venezia's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
48%
2.10
32%
3.17
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.07
0.77
Venezia xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
6%
17.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ternana and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ternana and 0.77 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ternana come into this having played 71 games, going 26W 19D 26L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.93 PPG from 71 outings (16W 18D 37L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Ternana carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ternana's home form reads 17W 7D 11L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.91 points per game from 35 outings (8W 8D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ternana are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.00 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 61%.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Venezia in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 26W 19D 26L in their last 71 games (1.37 PPG), while Venezia have gone 16W 18D 37L in their last 71 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Venezia away?
Ternana's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.66 PPG; Venezia away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Ternana or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Venezia in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ternana and Venezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Venezia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ternana
0
Draws
4
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Venezia have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Venezia 1-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 43%, Venezia 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ternana) and 43% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Venezia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Ternana's recent matches and 51% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ternana's recent games and 43% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Venezia tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Venezia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Venezia run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Ternana 1-4 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.30 xG and Venezia 0.77 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 0.77 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Venezia attack 0.78 / defence 1.10, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 48% | Draw 32% | Venezia 21%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 51%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Venezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.